In times like these, where the conditions are rapidly changing, it’s exciting to observe how both entrepreneurship and asset management are evolving. Germany is barely holding its position in the top 20 when it comes to GDP per capita, and in 10 to 15 years, the USA could have outpaced us to the extent that we today stand in relation to India. Unbelievable? Unfortunately, this trend has been predictable for years, with the compound interest effect working against us. Higher economic growth, increased productivity, and groundbreaking innovations – think of Artificial Intelligence (AI) – are hard to ignore. But don't worry, this is not a critique of Germany or politics – there’s already enough negativity written on that. Rather, every family office, entrepreneur, and investor should ask themselves which horse to back in the future and how to diversify wisely.
The developments over the past two years have been particularly striking. During the long phase of cheap money, nearly all asset classes performed well. But now, as belts tighten and uncertainty returns, it’s becoming clearer where investors expect value appreciation in the future and where skepticism reigns – regardless of the individual factors of each asset class.
While many investors in the last two years have experienced losses or, at best, stagnation in real estate, whether in the USA or Germany, stock investments have reached new highs – especially for index investors or those who wisely invested in active funds. At the same time, valuations and capital flows in the venture capital sector have been disappointing (unless you're building something with AI), and similarly with private equity. On the other hand, gold is hitting an all-time high, likely due to geopolitical tensions and the BRICS+ nations’ shift away from the dollar and the West. Despite all the volatility, if you had invested in Bitcoin and crypto over the past few years, you would have seen significant profits – almost 100% this year alone! How long would it take to achieve that with real estate? Yes, crypto is volatile, but no, not everyone in the crypto space is a criminal, and no, it’s not going away. It’s simply a sober comparison for an investor looking for long-term profitability.
The last few years have taught me humility in my own perceptions. It’s crucial to stay open, maintain a positive mindset, and be receptive to new, potentially unconventional investment targets. Your own region, preferred asset class, or expertise may have shifted. What worked in your family for years may yield very different results in the future. Additionally, today’s true diversification is also a form of asset protection strategy.
I’m writing all of this ahead of the upcoming U.S. election. May God be with us – I’m getting more and more nervous.
So: Fascination with Diversification – or do you know what our world will look like in 10 to 20 years?